林鸿文
职 称：讲师
职 务：专任教师
邮 箱：2979181051@qq.com
办公室：Y14-108
研究领域：动能策略、经济预测
学历
台湾大学 (台湾，TOP 1)，国际企业? 财务金融专业，博士候选人( Current )
政治大学 (台湾, TOP 2)，经济学博士 ( December 2013)
政治大学 (台湾, TOP 2)，经济学硕士 ( July 2007)
立项与奖项
广东省高等学校优秀青年教师培养计划，10万，广东省教育厅，2014，子课题负责人。
台湾大学102学年度「励学奖学金」得主 ( 管理学院博士唯一获选 )
博士论文奖，勇源基金会(NTD $360,000; August 2012 ~ July 2013)
品学兼优奖学金，上海银行文教基金会 (August 2006 ~ July 2007)
个人著作目录
Hung-Wen Lin, Chen-yuan Tung and Jason J. H. Yeh (2014), “Multivariate Methods in Assessing the Accuracy of Prediction Markets ex ante Based on the Highest-Price Criterion,” Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 7, No. 3, p. 31-46. 【EconPapers】林鸿文，童振源，叶家兴 (2014)。 “以预测市场汇聚信息支持决策之方法：从机率预测到类别判定。” 电子商务学报，第十六卷第二期/页 127-148. 【TSSCI】
林鸿文，童振源，叶家兴 (2014)。 “选举预测市场之选前鉴别模型：以最高价准则为门坎。” 吴东政治学报，第三十二卷第二期/页117-171。. 【TSSCI】
撰写中专书
[1] Hung-Wen Lin, Chung-Ching Tai, Bin-Tzong Chie, Shu-Heng Chen, Chen-yuan Tung, and Jason J. H. Yeh. “Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence,” Japan: Springer.
[2] 判定预测市场之准确度：预测准确度、鉴别模型与最适价格门坎
[3] 两岸金融产业发展研究，台湾金融研训院
投稿、撰写中文章
[1] “Wisdom of Crowds or Foolishness of Crowds? Assessing the Credibility of Prediction Markets with Combined Forecasts,” (with Chung-Ching Tai, Bin-Tzong Chie, Shu-Heng Chen, Chen-yuan Tung, and Jason J. H. Yeh).
[2] “Synergy Effect between Stochastic Dominance and Value at Risk,” (with Mao-Wei Hung and Cheng-Hu Ma).
[3] “The Discrimination Models of Accuracy for Election Prediction Markets: Based on the Highest-price Criterion,” (with Chen-yuan Tung and Jason J. H. Yeh), currently under review for publication.
[4] “Assessing the Forecasting Accuracy of Election Prediction Markets,” (with Chen-yuan Tung and Jason J. H. Yeh), currently under review for publication.
[5] “Factor Affecting the Accuracy of Prediction Markets: Perspectives from Principal Component Analyses”, (with Tzu-Chuan Chou, Jason J. H. Yeh, and Chen-yuan Tung ).
研讨会论文
“Models Assessing the Prediction Accuracy of Prediction Markets.” Paper presented with Tsz- Chuan Chou, Jason J. H. Yeh, and Chen-Yuan Tung at 2011 Taiwan Economics Association Annual Conference in Taipei, Taiwan, December 2011.
“Synergy Effect between Stochastic Dominance and Value at Risk.” Paper presented with Mao-Wei Hung and Cheng-Hu Ma at 2012 Taiwan Economics Association Annual Conference in Taoyuan, Taiwan, December 2012.
林鸿文，池秉聪，戴中擎，童振源，陈树衡，叶家兴. “预测市场：合并预测模型之事前鉴别”, 海峡两岸经济学与政策模拟研究暨全国博奕论与实验经济学研究会2014年会，华南师范大学，广州。
开设课程
?制度经济学
?国际经济学
?宏观经济学
?管理学
